Impact of CAP Post-2013 reforms on Agriculture in the UK: FAPRI Project Report

Executive Summary

This study examines the impact on UK agriculture of the main proposed changes to the regulations governing direct payments under the EU Commission‟s October 2011 legislative proposals. The analysis is based on the FAPRI-UK partial equilibrium modelling system, which captures the dynamic interrelationships among the variables affecting supply and demand in the main agricultural sectors of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. The UK models are run in conjunction with the FAPRI-Missouri EU modelling system to capture the impact of changes across the EU.

Five scenarios are analysed:

1. Redistribution of direct payments between Member States;
2. Move towards a uniform flat rate payment per hectare within Member States;
3. Greening measures;
4. Provision of coupled payments
5. Combined impact of above four reforms, plus removal of sugar quotas.

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