FAPRI‐UK model documentation

Introduction

The FAPRI‐UK modelling system (created and maintained by personnel in QUB‐AFBI) captures the dynamic interrelationships among the variables affecting supply and demand in the main agricultural sectors of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The model consists of a system of equations covering the dairy, beef, sheep, pigs, poultry, wheat, barley, oats, rape seed and biofuel sectors.

The UK model is fully incorporated within the EU grain, oilseed, livestock and dairy (GOLD) run by FAPRI at the University of Missouri [see Hanrahan (2001)]. Consequently, the UK model is not run in isolation but solves simultaneously within the FAPRI integrated partial equilibrium modelling system (See Figure 1.1). It thereby yields UK projections which are consistent with equilibrium at the EU‐level.

The UK model consists of sub models for England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland reflecting the areas of responsibility for the devolved administrations.

In general, supply is modelled for each of the four constituent countries of the UK, while demand is modelled at the UK level. This yields projections of livestock numbers, slaughter, production, market prices, market receipts, direct payments and selected inputs for each of the UK countries.

Commodity production from each of the four constituent UK countries is summed to calculate aggregate UK production.

Commodity domestic use, imports and exports are projected at the UK level.

In addition, the EU GOLD modelling system generates country specific estimates of supply, utilisation, trade and market prices for the other countries in the GOLD model (France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, rest of EU‐15, Poland, Hungary, rest of NMS‐10 (New Member State), Romania and Bulgaria), as well as estimates of supply and utilisation for the total EU.