An assessment of the spread of Ash dieback and cost effective mitigation strategies

Ash dieback is one of Northern Ireland’s most important native trees. In the lowland areas ash is found in hedgerow and woodlands.  Following an outbreak of Ash dieback (previously known as Chalara fraxinea, now known as Hymenoscyphus fraxineus ), the loss of biodiversity (in terms of insects, lichens and other plants) and landscape associated with ash could impact negatively on tourism and with a further potential of having a knock-on effect on the ‘health’ of the countryside.

The current strategy to prevent a potential outbreak of Chalara and spread in Northern Ireland is an eradication policy which involves the identification, destruction and removal of infected recent ash plantings. However, there is evidence this approach is not succeeding with Chalara being found in the wider environment.

Therefore, this project will develop a modelling framework that can be used by decision makers to identify the most cost effective mitigation options and implement a long-term strategy to support recovery of the Northern Ireland woodland environment.

The output of the research will not only indicate areas (using geographical maps) which will need intervention in case of an outbreak but also provide monetary values which the Forest Service can use as a benchmark to estimate the financial commitment of preventing this disease from becoming establish in Northern Ireland.